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El sector de la construcción crecerá un 4,8% este año, hasta 113.000 millones de euros

  • El informe sectorial de CESCE estima que el aumento de la edificación residencial y no residencial compensará la caída de la inversión en obra pública.

La producción del sector de la construcción en España podría situarse al cierre de 2017 en torno a los 113.000 millones de euros, lo que significaría un crecimiento del 4,8 por ciento con respecto a 2016, según el último informe sectorial realizado por CESCE Seguros de Crédito, en el que se afirma que las previsiones para el sector constructor en los próximos ejercicios “son positivas”.

El crecimiento previsto para el año en curso se producirá a pesar de la   caída en un 11,9 por ciento de la obra civil, que se compensará con las mejoras en la edificación residencial y no residencial.

El informe de CESCE explica que el segmento de la edificación no residencial aumentará su producción un 7 por ciento en 2017 y un 5,6 por ciento en 2018, impulsada principalmente por el ascenso de la actividad en los segmentos industrial y de servicios comerciales y almacenes. La previsión para la rehabilitación y el mantenimiento es que la producción aumente un 7,6 por ciento y un 5,9 por ciento en 2017 y 2018, respectivamente, con lo que este segmento alcanzaría el 33 por ciento de la producción total.

Las mejores perspectivas corresponden al segmento de la edificación residencial para el que el informe estima un crecimiento del 10,6 y 6,4 por ciento para 2017 y 2018, respectivamente, tomando como referencia las estimaciones de la consultora DBK. Se espera que en estos ejercicios vuelva al crecimiento tanto el número de viviendas terminadas como la compraventa de viviendas nuevas.

También seguirá aumentando el número de viviendas iniciadas, dado que en 2017 se autorizaron visados de obra nueva para uso residencial en España para 64.038 viviendas, lo que supone un aumento del 29 por ciento en comparación con el año anterior. En todo caso,  los analistas de CESCE señalan que el número de unidades que se empezarán a construir en 2017 apenas alcanzarán el 50 por ciento del nivel mínimo  que los expertos estiman apropiado para nuestro país, estimado entre 150.000 y 200.000 viviendas al año.

Según datos de DBK, el incremento de la producción en 2016 se situó en el 4,7 por ciento, mientras que Euroconstruct en sus previsiones de noviembre 2016 lo deja en un 2,1 por ciento. Sea como sea, el informe de CESCE resalta que “se consolida la dinámica de crecimiento”.

Sin embargo, apunta, que no hay que olvidar que, como consecuencia de la profundidad de la crisis sufrida por el sector, los niveles de producción actuales “todavía se encuentran alejados de la normalidad”. La obra civil creció un 3 por ciento en 2015, beneficiada por la celebración de varios procesos electorales, pero 2016 se cerró con una fuerte recaída del -9,1 por ciento, según DBK.

La edificación residencial mostró el mejor comportamiento en 2016, por delante de la rehabilitación y mantenimiento (+8,2 por ciento), con un crecimiento que roza el 10 por ciento gracias a la reducción del stock, el aumento de las compraventas, el incremento de los precios, la mejora del mercado laboral y el crecimiento de la economía.

Por lo que respecta a la edificación no residencial, es el mercado que menos creció el año pasado (+6,2%), por lo que se sigue manteniendo el fuerte contraste entre la costosa recuperación de la producción y la intensa actividad del mercado de inversión mayorista.

 

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